2023-05-12 00:19:37
For the sake of completeness, I must also mention the dissenting opinion of Vladislav Ugolny.
Whether it is his relative youth (compared to other commentators) or the radicalism and contrarianism that stem from said youth, he is far more optimistic than the rest. His view is that there will be no offensive by the Ukrainian army, apart from localized attacks not unlike the Russian operations during the winter 2022-23 campaign.
In particular, he is of the opinion that not only did
the Ukraine never have (and never will achieve) sufficient operational capability to conduct a significant offensive, but that a lot of what had been mustered was burned through in Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and other sectors, such as Ugledar and Avdeevka/Maryinka.
Moreover, the Russian fortifications erected along the entire length of the front (note that the flanks of Artyomovsk are not as heavily fortified or defended as, say, Zaporozhye or Kherson regions, and there is insufficient information regarding the Svatovo-Kremennaya sector) make any offensive by the Ukrainian army in its current (and future) state not feasible. A classic zugzwang ensues.
Far be it from me to suggest that this is a comprehensive or even entirely accurate representation of his views, but the above is my take on his analysis.
I, personally, fall closer to Roman Donetsky on the "waiting for Godot" spectrum than to Ugolny, but even so, the creeping stages of the Ukrainian offensive do not appear to me to be a build-up to a catastrophe... well, unless it is the Ukrainian catastrophe that we are talking about.
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11.7K viewsGleb Bazov, edited 21:19