2023-10-29 12:34:12
My Expectation & Plan: Since Crypto & Stocks all time highs/historical highs (late 2021) - I’ve maintained a macro bearish perspective on both the stock and crypto market.
This perspective, however, hasn't deterred me from capitalizing on brief upward trends or 'bounces', i’ve been catching many bounces by buying lows and selling on the pumps, squeezing every liquidity from the market whenever it was possible.
Regarding the near-term trajectory, I expect a further retracement, potentially to the low 20s (BTC) or even slightly below, before witnessing any bull market.
The catalyst for this downturn remains speculative as i don’t know what it will cause it as It could be precipitated by a larger 'risk-off' sentiment pervading the market, causing widespread divestitures across both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Alternatively, the crypto market itself might encounter an unforeseen 'black swan' event, a scenario I've been mentioning it many times, stressing the market's inherent unpredictability. (TUSD, BNB, TRX Crash)
Despite the overall bearish outlook, I expect a short term bullish sentiment and price action.
By mid-November, I expect a rally in altcoins, driven by capital transitioning from BTC and ETH into them.
Gains could range from 20% to a significant 50% for many altcoins which are showing strength and potential short-mid term reversal. However, I strongly believe this 'mini alt season' to be short-lived, possibly spanning just a couple of weeks.
Strategically, my intention is to channel the potential profits from this altcoin rally into building even a bigger short position, especially on BNB.
Most likely later this year or somewhere in Q1 after a risk-off, we will be turning our sentiment into a bullish one and expect that bottom will be in across all the markets and most assets which will create the perfect base for the upcoming bull.
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